Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes


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    Managementboek Daarom koopt u bij Managementboek Een boek uitgeven, hoe doe je dat? The spatial distribution of the measurement locations and their neighboring relations cannot be incorporated in a vector autoregressive model. However, accounting for this information may optimize model fitting and provide insight into spatial correlation structures that evolve through time.

    This can be accomplished by applying space-time modeling techniques. The main difference of space-time models encountered in literature with the vector autoregressive ones lies in the inclusion of a weight matrix that defines the neighboring relations and places the appropriate restrictions.

    Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes

    For some early references on space-time models, one could consult Pfeifer and Deutsch a,b ; for a Bayesian approach, insensitive to nonstationarities we refer to Wikle, Berliner and Cressie In this work, we discuss how the space-time methodology can be implemented to traffic flow modeling. The aforementioned modeling strategies are applied in a subset of traffic flow measurements collected every 15 minutes through loop detectors at 74 locations in the city of Athens. A comparative study in terms of model fitting and forecasting accuracy is performed.

    Univariate time series models are also fitted in each measurement location in order to investigate the relation between a model's dimension and performance. References: LeSage J. Manuscript, Dept.

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    Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems. Empirical Vector Autoregressive Modeling. A three-stage iterative procedure for Space-Time Modeling. Technometrics, 22, Pfeifer P.

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    Technometrics, 22, Rice J. A simple and effective method for predicting travel times on freeways.

    Hierarchical Bayesian space-time models. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5,

    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes
    Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes Forecasting Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes

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